Kevin Sullivan

The Iranian Generation

Posted by Kevin Sullivan under Uncategorized

Can’t blog much today, but the good folks at Pajamas Media were kind enough to publish a column of mine today.  It’s on–what else?–Iran.  Here’s a snip:

The movement that took hold of Iran in the late 1970s was energized by an increasingly urban population, one where the words and comforting conservatism of the mullahs provided solace to a population startled by hyper-modernity. In a rapidly changing land, the familiar words from the mosque and the neighborhood prayer groups (known as hay’ats) helped grow the grassroots of the coming revolutionary wave. But the current crop of Iranian youths is different, and they don’t share the same anti-Western vigor as their parents once did. The U.S. Census Bureau has tracked these youngsters, whom today comprise the largest population block in Iran. Couple this with an 11% unemployment rate (according to the Iranian government) and a median age of 26, and the picture you begin to get is a country full of frustrated young men. The Iranian Principalists in charge of the regime understand the volatile time bomb they sit upon, making much of their paranoia well warranted. It’s an obvious example of the sad state of affairs in Iran, wherein the ruling class must fight and fear the energy and ingenuity of its young, rather than tapping into those citizens in order to strengthen their nation.

However, one nation’s failure might represent a glimmer of hope for another. A recent poll conducted by World Public Opinion found that Iranians — although still critical of American behavior — desire stronger relations, more trade, and more exchanging of ideas with their Western rivals. Rather than embracing the anti-Western rhetoric and sloganeering of their leaders, this generation of Iranians sees a future with its American counterparts. Iran’s frustrated youth offers the United States a soft-power leverage that bombs and bullets alone cannot supply. On the contrary, attacking this regime now could instead alienate the deciding generation for post-revolutionary Iran. It will be these young men (and women) who give Ayatollah Khomeini his final grade. It’s these Iranians — who in a decade’s time will be approaching their 40s and raising children of their own — whose political perceptions will be molded and formed by the way in which America engages their country. 

Read the rest here.